Who Will Receive the GOP Nomination In a Contested Convention?

Who Will Receive the GOP Nomination In a Contested Convention?

I haven’t written much about the presidential races in a while, somewhat because I have been busy lately, but mostly because I haven’t found that much interesting to write about.

In the Democrat race, Bernie Sanders keeps on winning primaries, but anyone who thinks Hillary won’t win the nomination is deluding themselves. The fix has been in since the beginning on this race. The only thing that can stop Hillary at this point is Hillary. Frankly, this race has been boring from the start.

On the GOP side, boring isn’t the word anyone would use to describe it. It looks more and more likely that no one will get to the convention with enough delegates to lock up the nomination. Which means those two words that the media has been salivating over for decades can finally be uttered: contested convention. Other than death, destruction, and perverse sexual practices, nothing gets the media more excited than a contested political convention. No one really knows what will happen if this occurs, but that just makes it more interesting for producers and writers trying to fill a 24-hour news network.

Like everyone else, I have no idea what would happen in a contested GOP convention, but here is my guess on who I think will most likely receive the nomination if that happens.

Chance of GOP Nomination: Less than 1%.

Sorry, Trumpkins, but it ain’t going to happen. If Drumpf can’t lock up the delegates in time (in a process he calls “unfair”), there is no way the GOP Establishment (which actually has some power at the convention) will let it happen. Donald might go third-party, but I think he just decides to turn himself into the victim and plays it for ratings and future TV/book/media deals. Remember: the only thing that matters to Trump is Trump.

ted-cruzTed Cruz
Chance of GOP Nomination: 25%

In the panic over Trump, people are already forgetting how much the Establishment hates Cruz. He might have enough committed delegates and political savvy to swing the nomination, but I think it unlikely. More probable is that he takes a promise for a Cabinet position.

John-Kasich-HeadshotJohn Kasich
Chance of GOP Nomination: 10%

Please, God, no. Kasich is like that guest who overstays his welcome by 5 hours (“My, look at the time, it’s 2 in the morning, are you sure you don’t need to get home?”). He knows he has long been mathematically eliminated from the race, but he stays in because (1) he hopes to prevent anyone else from getting the nomination; (2) he can’t do math; or (3) he’s just so annoying.

Paul_Ryan_official_portraitPaul Ryan
Chance of GOP Nomination: 15%

Whenever a politician says he’s not interested in a position, that means he’s really interested. And what politician isn’t interested in being President? Fellow Miami University Alum Ryan is considered the savior of the Establishment, and I’m sure they’ll do a hard push for him at the convention. And if he is asked, he’ll accept.

blank_headshotA Candidate So Weak He/She Can’t Even Beat Hillary Clinton
Chance of GOP Nomination: 50%

If there is one thing you can count on with the GOP, it is that they will screw things up. In a year where the Democrat candidate would make Dukakis or Mondale look strong, the GOP can’t even be counted on to put up someone that could actually win in a “gimme” year. Whether it is Romney or some other boring candidate, look for the GOP convention to result in someone thoroughly disappointing.

Did I hear someone say third-party?