Baseball Predictions

2016 Baseball Predictions Revisited

Back in March I made predictions regarding this year’s MLB season. Let’s see how I did, and I’ll also updated my playoff predictions while I’m at it.

AL East

Preseason Prediction
Boston Red Sox (95-67)
Toronto Blue Jays (90-72)
Tampa Bay Rays (84-78)
New York Yankees (78-84)
Baltimore Orioles (65-97)

Actual
Boston Red Sox (93-69)
Toronto Blue Jays (89-73)
Baltimore Orioles (89-73)
New York Yankees (84-78)
Tampa Bay Rays (68-94)

Notes
I did quite well for this division, picking both the division winner and the 2nd place team/wild card. I obviously underestimated the Orioles, and living near Tampa must have inflated my opinion of them. But not bad.

AL Central

Preseason Prediction
Chicago White Sox (91-71)
Kansas City Royals (89-73)
Cleveland Indians (81-81)
Detroit Tigers (76-86)
Minnesota Twins (68-94)

Actual
Cleveland Indians (94-67)
Detroit Tigers (86-75)
Kansas City Royals (81-81)
Chicago White Sox (78-84)
Minnesota Twins (59-103)

Notes
I said in the preseason that “This is by far the hardest division to predict.” And I was right. I completely whiffed on this division.

AL West

Preseason Prediction
Houston Astros (91-71)
Texas Rangers (85-77)
Seattle Mariners (81-81)
Los Angeles Angels (76-86)
Oakland A’s (65-97)

Actual
Texas Rangers (95-67)
Seattle Mariners (86-76)
Houston Astros (84-78)
Los Angeles Angels (74-88)
Oakland A’s (69-93)

Notes
My notes in March: “I’m not impressed by the Rangers’ 2015, and I think they’ll drop this year.” Oops. They ended up being the best team in the AL.

NL East

Preseason Prediction
Washington Nationals (93-69)
New York Mets (91-71)
Miami Marlins (79-83)
Atlanta Braves (72-90)
Philadelphia Phillies (62-100)

Actual
Washington Nationals (95-67)
New York Mets (87-75)
Miami Marlins (79-83)
Philadelphia Phillies (71-91)
Atlanta Braves (68-93)

Notes
This was my best division, as I only flipped the bottom two teams. I even picked the Mets as the wild-card team.

NL Central

Preseason Prediction
Chicago Cubs (97-65)
Pittsburg Pirates (95-67)
St. Louis Cardinals (83-79)
Milwaukee Brewers (70-92)
Cincinnati Reds (65-97)

Actual
Chicago Cubs (103-58)
St. Louis Cardinals (86-76)
Pittsburg Pirates (78-83)
Milwaukee Brewers (73-89)
Cincinnati Reds (68-94)

Notes
I didn’t do too bad here, flipping the Pirates and the Cardinals, although I picked the Pirates to be the wild-card team. They probably had the most disappointing season in 2016, based on expectations.

NL West

Preseason Prediction
San Francisco Giants (91-71)
Los Angeles Dodgers (88-74)
Arizona Diamondbacks (87-75)
San Diego Padres (75-87)
Colorado Rockies (67-95)

Actual
Los Angeles Dodgers (91-71)
San Francisco Giants (87-75)
Colorado Rockies (75-87)
Arizona Diamondbacks (69-93)
San Diego Padres (68-94)

Notes
I flipped the top two teams, which made me leave out the Dodgers from the playoffs completely. But if you look at my predicted win totals for those two teams, I wasn’t too far off.

Playoff Teams

Preseason Prediction
AL Division Winners: Red Sox, White Sox, Astros
AL Wild Cards: Blue Jays, Royals

NL Division Winners: Nationals, Cubs, Giants
NL Wild Cards: Pirates, Mets

Actual
AL Division Winners: Red Sox, Indians, Rangers
AL Wild Cards: Blue Jays, Orioles

NL Division Winners: Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers
NL Wild Cards: Mets, Giants

Notes
Overall, I picked 3 out of 6 division winners, and 2 out of 4 wild-card teams (and picked one wild-card team as a division winner). That is 5 out of 10 total picks correct. Frankly, I think 50% is awful darn good, considering all that can happen during a 162-game season. Furthermore, compared to the predictions of the ESPN experts, I did better than all but 2 of the 31 experts in their predictions. Sign me up, Word-Wide Leader!

Updated Playoff Predictions

Preseason Predictions
Wild Card Winners: Blue Jays, Mets
ALDS Winners: Red Sox, Astros
NLDS Winners: Cubs, Giants

ALCS Winner: Red Sox
NLCS Winner: Cubs

World Series: Cubs over Red Sox, 4 games to 2.

Updated Predictions
Wild Card Winners: Blue Jays, Mets
ALDS Winners: Red Sox, Blue Jays
NLDS Winners: Cubs, Nationals

ALCS Winner: Red Sox
NLCS Winner: Cubs

World Series: Cubs over Red Sox, 4 games to 2.

Notes
I stuck with my initial predictions as much as possible, because why not? I hate predicting the wild-card game, since it is basically a 50/50 crap-shoot. I hesitated picking any wild-card team to advance the Championship Series, but that usually happens at least once a year, so I decided to go with the Blue Jays. I’m probably tempting fate to pick against the Giants in an even year, but the Cubs look just too strong.

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